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The Economic Consequences of the Gaza War

With Israel embarked on a military campaign to eliminate Hamas from Gaza, it remains to be seen whether the conflict will escalate into a broader regional war.

If it does, the global economic fallout could include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing stock markets, and deep stagflationary recessions.

  • Nouriel Roubini
  • Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – Hamas’s barbaric massacre of at least 1,400 Israelis on October 7, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza to eradicate the group, has introduced four geopolitical scenarios bearing on the global economy and markets.

As is often the case with such shocks, optimism may prove misguided.

In the first scenario, the

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