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What Will (And Will Not) Likely Happen In The South China Sea – OpEd

I am not trying to be a Nostradamus.

But after some 45 years of analyzing South China Sea issues and developments, I have concluded that there are some things that will – and will not – – likely happen in the foreseeable future, and I think I understand why.

  • Mark J. Valencia
  • Eurasia Review

First some context.

In the mid-1970s when I first began following and analyzing South China Sea issues, they were a relatively geopolitically isolated and rather esoteric set of disputes over ownership of fly specks on a map.

They were not major security concerns for the claimants nor for outside maritime powers like the U.S.

They could have been managed by a…

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