José Ramos-Horta’s remarks at the Global Baku Forum highlight how smaller states are shaping debate on war, diplomacy and international law.
In a fragmented world, even the quietest diplomatic platforms can carry global messages.
In an increasingly divided international landscape, influential geopolitical signals are sometimes delivered not in the halls of the United Nations but at quieter diplomatic gatherings.
One such moment occurred at the Global Baku Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan, where José Ramos-Horta, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning president of Timor-Leste, issued a stark warning about the risks of escalating tensions involving Iran.
Ramos-Horta cautioned that any military intervention against Iran could carry severe global consequences, economically and politically. His intervention reflected a broader concern shared by many states outside the major power blocs: that conflicts in the Middle East risk triggering wider instability at a time when the international system is already under strain.
The warning was delivered at a forum that has quietly evolved into an influential platform for geopolitical discussion. Organised by the Nizami Ganjavi International Center, the Global Baku Forum convenes former heads of state, diplomats and policy thinkers from across the world. Its appeal lies partly in its informal nature. Unlike official summits of the United Nations or regional organisations, participants speak without the constraints of active government positions.
This format allows the forum to function as a space for what diplomats often describe as “Track II diplomacy”. Western and Eurasian figures, sometimes representing countries with strained relations, appear on the same stage. Discussions are candid, and the absence of formal negotiations often encourages a frank exchange of views on global crises.
For Azerbaijan, hosting the gathering has become a strategic exercise in diplomatic positioning. By presenting Baku as a meeting ground between Europe, the Middle East and Asia, the country seeks to cultivate a reputation as a bridge between geopolitical worlds. Such initiatives represent a classic form of soft power, where influence is built through dialogue rather than coercion.
Yet the forum’s significance extends beyond Azerbaijan’s diplomatic ambitions. In recent years it has increasingly become a platform for voices from what is often described as the Global South. Leaders from Africa, Asia and Latin America have used the event to express frustration with what they see as an uneven application of international rules.
Ramos-Horta’s remarks echoed that sentiment. He argued that international law often appears to be enforced selectively, particularly against smaller states. For many countries outside the traditional centres of power, this perception has become a central issue in debates about the future of global governance.
The intervention also reflected a deeper tension in international politics. While major powers frequently frame conflicts through the lens of security and strategic competition, many smaller states emphasise diplomacy, dialogue and respect for sovereignty. Their concern is that escalating confrontations—from Eastern Europe to the Middle East—risk eroding the fragile norms that underpin the international system.
The question raised in Baku is therefore larger than the immediate issue of Iran. It touches on the credibility of the global rules-based order itself. If international law is perceived as inconsistent or selective, confidence in multilateral institutions may continue to decline.
For now, the Global Baku Forum remains an informal venue rather than a decision-making body. Yet gatherings of this kind often serve as laboratories for diplomatic ideas. Statements made there can shape discussions within governments, think tanks and international organisations long after the conference ends.
In a world increasingly defined by geopolitical rivalry, the importance of such spaces should not be underestimated. Sometimes the most revealing signals in international politics emerge not from official communiqués but from conversations on quieter stages.
Η σιωπηλή διπλωματία του Μπακού και η προειδοποίηση για το Ιράν
The message delivered in Baku was clear:
The risks of escalation are rising, and the demand for diplomacy remains urgent.
- Dinos Toumazos is a co-founder and director of Agora Dialogue.
- Dr. José Ramos-Horta is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, President of Timor-Leste (East Timor) and a co-founder and patron of Agora Dialogue.